Competitive Cycles¶
An interesting argument from Marc Andreessen on some comparatively neglected dynamics of tech competition (selective extracts):
1/Cycle time compression may be the most underestimated force in determining winners & losers in tech.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) June 3, 2014
6/Second clear instance of cycle time compression: Product improvement & customer upgrade cycles for phones vs TVs and cars.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) June 3, 2014
7/Consumers can upgrade their phones every 1-2 years, vs TVs at 5-8 years? Cars at 10-12 years? With phones improving by leaps & bounds.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) June 3, 2014
9/Implication: TVs and cars will become accessories for phones, not the other way around. And already happening: Airplay, Chromecast.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) June 3, 2014
It seems to follow from this argument that competitive forces drive product cycles in the direction of compression, and thus techno-economic acceleration. Industries with the shortest technonomic wavelength (highest frequency) ascend to dominance, draining resources from relatively retarded sectors, and re-setting the social pulse to ever greater speeds.
ADDED: Andreessen’s “tweet essays” integrated for convenient reading.